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As I had mentioned earlier, I have been looking to find a suitable web host to host the blog. I have also been looking to find a plugin to allow me to create unique user id/password pair for each of you and also allow you to change your passwords.
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I have already mailed each of you your user id and password
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Do not worry about posts, I will PDF them and mail them if I have to till we get all possible issues sorted out
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On Friday, US market did well.
An interesting development for the day was 1.6% spike in the Muni-Bond ETF
Now, if you follow financial markets even once in a while through headlines, you might have heard pundits of all shapes and sizes singing the swan song of municipal bonds and calling State bankruptcies a fait accompli. So, I find it amusing that the muni-bond ETF does a one-day 1.6% jump. Are some getting a whiff of more bailouts, this time for states and municipalities? Time will tell, of course, but I found it a bit concerning that on a day when S&P ran nicely and Muni-Bonds did well, gold did poorly.
I have gone through a list of how everything has happened in an expected manner for gold: The top, the correction, the level(s) of support, spike through support and the bounce from there.
I have a nagging feeling that we may get a curve ball to derail as many as possible, but let’s forget about feelings and intuitions and stay with technical facts
This is a weekly
I was hoping for a weekly close above the shorter MAs but that did not happen last week. That has left the weekly price situation in a fine balance. Notice the weekly RSI around neutral. This could easily go either way.
This is a daily
I mentioned the tight technical spot formed by the two forks, the top of the gap, and the MAs. I would like GLD to hang on to support offered by the MAs and eventually move out of the gap area to the upside. I want it to get above the mid-line of the red fork and stay there. If it loses the support of the MAs and falls below 131.30, I will be concerned, at least for the short term, and will become suspicious until it can move back up and take 134.
I also showed the following chart
GLD is right in the middle of my adaptive channel. That reinforces what I said about being in fine balance. I want it to get above the mid-line and stay in the upper half of the channel
Notice from the RPA panel that GLD has been underperforming S&P. Eventually, I want this to change. Not making a new low is a step in the right direction.
This is a 60-min
It is not possible for me to say if the rise from the recent low is part of impulse or just and a-b-c.
As things stand now, it takes a move below 131.70 to perhaps indicate a possible change in short-term trend to the downside. I would ideally want GLD to not make a short term downtrend just yet. But if it happens, I become suspicious and would remain so until we get a short term trend back up and a move above 133.50, and, eventually, 134 area
There is a good chance that we have seen the low of Minor wave 4, but it has to behave in a manner that relieves my suspicions and strengthens that possibility. I need to be alert to a failure here because, if this is only a-b-c wave up, another leg down may just become ugly.